| 基于期权博弈的可再生能源投资定价策略研究 |
| Research on renewable energy investment strategy and pricing strategy based on option game |
| 摘要点击 97 全文点击 0 投稿时间：2022-10-24 修订日期：2024-01-10 |
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| 中文关键词 可再生能源；容量投资；实物期权；动态博弈 |
| 英文关键词 renewable energy; capacity investment; real option; dynamic games |
| 基金项目 国家社科基金项目(18BGL018)；福建省社会科学基金重点项目(FJ2022A010)；福建江夏学院校级科研项目 (JXS 2022002) |
| 作者 | 单位 | 邮编 | | 林晶 | 福建江夏学院 | 350008 | | 吴赐联 | 福建江夏学院 | 350108 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 研究电力需求随机波动下的可再生能源发电项目的投资和定价策略问题。构建无限连续时间的Stackelberg动态博弈模型，分析发电企业投资可再生能源的最优时间和容量决策，探讨在投资期权下电网企业基于经济和环境收益最大化的定价策略，提出政府对可再生电力限价区间的优化设置。研究表明：若等待投资为最优选择，可再生电力收购价格增加促使发电企业更早投资而不是更多投资，可再生电力需求波动增大使得发电企业延长等待时间而不是缩小投资规模。若立即投资为最优选择，更高的收购价格、更低的边际成本和更小的需求波动都将激励发电企业更大的投资规模。相对于短视策略和传统策略，期权投资策略为发电企业带来更高价值。电网企业的最优定价取决于可再生电力的环境和电能价值以及政府限价，在可再生电力初始需求和期望增长率双重差异下，其最优定价结构是稳健的，售电侧垄断开放不会并导致电网企业陷入“死亡螺旋”。 |
| 英文摘要 |
| Research on the investment and pricing strategy of renewable energy power generation projects under the random fluctuation of power demand. Build an infinite continuous-time Stackelberg dynamic game model, analyze the optimal time and capacity decisions of power generation companies to invest in renewable energy, discuss the pricing strategy of power grid companies based on maximizing economic and environmental benefits under investment options, and propose the government""s price of renewable electricity. Optimization settings for the interval. The research shows that: if waiting for investment is the optimal choice, the increase in the purchase price of renewable power will prompt power generation companies to invest earlier rather than more, and the increase in the fluctuation of renewable power demand will make power generation companies extend the waiting time instead of reducing the scale of investment. If immediate investment is the best option, higher purchase prices, lower marginal costs and smaller demand fluctuations will encourage larger investment scales for power generation companies. Compared with short-sighted strategies and traditional strategies, option investment strategies bring higher value to power generation companies. The optimal pricing of power grid companies depends on the environment and electric energy value of renewable power, as well as the government’s price limit. Under the dual difference between the initial demand for renewable power and the expected growth rate, its optimal pricing structure is stable, and the monopoly on the electricity sales side is not open to the public. It will cause grid companies to fall into a "death spiral". |
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