| 碳排放权交易、基准线法与中国宏观经济波动 |
| Carbon Emissions Trading, Quota Baseline Method and Macroeconomic Fluctuations of China |
| 摘要点击 14 全文点击 0 投稿时间：2021-10-06 修订日期：2024-04-05 |
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| 中文关键词 碳排放权交易；基准线法；DSGE模型 |
| 英文关键词 carbon emission trading; quota baseline method; DSGE model |
| 基金项目 |
| 作者 | 单位 | 邮编 | | 杨翱 | 深圳大学经济学院 | 518051 | | 赵静 | 湖南大学金融与统计学院 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 本文基于中国碳排放权交易市场特征，以碳配额分配方法中的基准线法为出发点，通过构建一个八部门的动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型，比较分析了三种基准线百分比（30%、50%和70%）下高碳排放企业技术冲击、低碳排放企业技术冲击、政府支出冲击与货币政策冲击的经济增长效应、价格效应与生态效应。研究表明：高（低）碳排放企业技术冲击对低（高）碳排放企业产出存在挤出效应，且低碳排放企业技术冲击对高碳排放企业产出的挤出效应大于高碳排放企业技术冲击对低碳排放企业产出的挤出效应，另外，高（低）碳排放企业技术冲击对低（高）碳排放企业产出的挤出效应随着碳配额基准线百分比的提高而增强；（2）货币政策冲击与政府支出冲击对碳配额价格的影响不及两类碳排放企业技术冲击，过高的碳配额基准线百分比会放大两类碳排放企业技术冲击对碳配额价格的影响；（3）相对于两类碳排放企业技术冲击，货币政策冲击与政府支出冲击的经济增长效应、价格效应与生态效应受碳配额基准线百分比的影响相对要小。 |
| 英文摘要 |
| Based on the characteristics of Chinese carbon emissions trading system, this paper establishes a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of eight sectors to compare economic growth effect, price effect and ecological effect of high carbon emission enterprise technology shock, low carbon emission enterprise technology shock，government expenditure shock and monetary shock under three kinds of quota baseline percentages (30% and 50% and 70%) of quota baseline method. By analyzing the impulse responses and variance decomposition of above exogenous shocks, the paper comes to the following conclusions:（1）The technology shock of high (low) carbon emission enterprises has crowding out effect on the output of low (high) carbon emission enterprises, and the crowding out effect of technology shock of low carbon emission enterprises on the output of high carbon emission enterprises is greater than that of technology shock of high carbon emission enterprises on the output of low carbon emission enterprises, in addition, the crowding out effect of technology shock of high (low) carbon emission enterprises on the output of low (high) carbon emission enterprises increases with the increase of carbon quota baseline percentage. (2) The impact of monetary policy shock and government expenditure shock on carbon quota price is less than the impact of technology shock of two types of carbon emission enterprises, too high carbon quota baseline percentage will amplify the impact of technology shock of two types of carbon emission enterprises on carbon quota price. (3) Compared with the technical shocks of the two types of carbon emission enterprises, the economic growth effects, price effects and ecological effects of monetary policy shocks and government expenditure shocks are relatively less affected by carbon quota baseline percentage. |
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