| 考虑电池焦虑与政府补贴的电动汽车换电站投资决策 |
| Investment Decisions on Electric Vehicles Battery Swapping Stations Considering Battery Anxiety and Government Subsidies |
| 摘要点击 36 全文点击 0 投稿时间：2025-12-10 修订日期：2026-06-07 |
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| 中文关键词 供应链管理; 电动汽车；政府补贴；换电站投资；电池租赁 |
| 英文关键词 Electric vehicles; Government subsidies; Battery swapping station investment; Battery leasing |
| 基金项目 国家社科基金后期资助 |
| 投稿方向 供应链管理 |
| 作者 | 单位 | 邮编 | | 刘斌* | 上海理工大学管理学院 | 200093 | | 郭天骄 | 上海理工大学管理学院 | | | 顾琼琼 | 上海理工大学管理学院 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 为优化电动汽车产业供应链决策，提升社会福利与电动汽车普及度，本文构建包含政府、电池供应商、电动汽车制造商及消费者的供应链模型，探究政府无补贴、有补贴（购买补贴、基础设施补贴）与换电站投资主体（电池供应商、电动汽车制造商）组合形成的运营模式。通过逆向归纳法求解各模式下的最优决策，分析电池焦虑程度、租赁电池的运营成本等关键因素的影响机制。研究发现，电动汽车制造商销售模式选择以租赁电池的运营成本为核心依据。换电站的投资决策与政府是否提供补贴和补贴方式有关。当政府提供补贴时，购买补贴为政府最优补贴方式，其社会福利提升效果优于基础设施补贴。本研究为政府制定精准补贴政策、企业优化销售与投资策略提供了理论依据与实践指导，助力电动汽车产业规模化发展。 |
| 英文摘要 |
| To optimize decision-making in the electric vehicle industry supply chain and enhance social welfare and EV adoption rates, this paper constructs a supply chain model encompassing governments, battery suppliers, EV manufacturers, and consumers. It explores operational models formed by combinations of government subsidy policies (no subsidies, purchase subsidies, infrastructure subsidies) and battery swapping station investment entities (battery suppliers, EV manufacturers). Using backward induction to determine optimal decisions under each model, the study analyzes the influence mechanisms of key factors such as range anxiety levels and operational costs of battery leasing. Findings reveal that electric vehicle manufacturers base their sales model selection primarily on the operational costs of battery leasing. Investment decisions for battery swapping stations are influenced by whether the government provides subsidies and the form of those subsidies. When subsidies are offered, purchase subsidies represent the optimal government subsidy approach, yielding greater social welfare gains than infrastructure subsidies. This research provides theoretical foundations and practical guidance for governments to formulate targeted subsidy policies and for enterprises to optimize sales and investment strategies, thereby supporting the scaled development of the electric vehicle industry. |
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