| 光伏换电服务商的复杂动态决策与补贴政策效率研究 |
| Complex Dynamic Decision-Making of Photovoltaic Battery Swapping Service Providers and the Efficiency of Subsidy Policies |
| 摘要点击 13 全文点击 0 投稿时间：2025-10-08 修订日期：2026-08-30 |
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| 中文关键词 光伏社区; 换电站; 混合博弈; 财政补贴; 复杂非线性动力学系统 |
| 英文关键词 bank-insurance cooperation; SME loan guarantee insurance; accounts receivable financing; evo- lutionary game; complex system theory |
| 基金项目 国家自然科学基金资助项目 (71571131). |
| 投稿方向 复杂系统建模及其应用 |
| 作者 | 单位 | 邮编 | | 刘予歆 | 天津大学 | 300072 | | 马军海* | 天津大学 | 300072 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 光伏直供换电站为提升可再生能源消纳与降低交通领域碳足迹提供了新的路径. 本文构建了涵盖光伏设备 供应商、光伏社区运营商以及光伏型与传统型换电服务商的供应链模型, 系统分析换电服务商双寡头竞争格局下 的市场决策行为与财政补贴效应. 研究表明:在非合作博弈中, 较低的分时电价价差差或较高的储能成本与用户绿 色偏好均赋予光伏服务商市场优势, 但较低的电池循环损耗则削弱其相对优势;在适度的分时电价差下, 合作博弈 能够实现还贷呢服务商双边帕累托改进. 本文引入财政补贴乘数以比较不同补贴类型的有效性, 结果显示消费者 补贴在全面改善供应链经济收益表现最佳, 而运营商补贴与服务商补贴更加兼顾经济效用与环境效用. 最后, 通过 复杂非线性动力学系统刻画企业长期决策调整过程, 研究发现过高的决策调整速率会诱发混沌现象, 削弱系统韧性 并损害大多数供应链参与者的长期可盈利性. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Direct photovoltaic-powered battery swapping stations provide a new pathway to enhance renewable energy consumption and reduce carbon emissions in transport. This study develops a supply chain model in- volving photovoltaic equipment suppliers, PV community operators, and photovoltaic-based and conventional swapping service providers, systematically analyzing their market strategies and subsidy effects under duopoly competition. Results show that in non-cooperative games, a narrow peak-off-peak price gap, high storage costs, or strong consumer green preference grant PV providers a competitive advantage, whereas lower bat- tery degradation weakens this advantage; under moderate price gaps, cooperative games yield bilateral Pareto improvements for swapping providers. Fiscal subsidy multipliers are introduced to compare different subsidy types, indicating that consumer subsidies perform best in improving overall supply chain profitability, while operator and provider subsidies balance economic and environmental benefits. Finally, a nonlinear dynamic system illustrates long-term decision adjustments, revealing that excessively high adjustment speeds induce chaos, weaken resilience, and impair sustainable profitability. |
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