| 考虑随机需求的可持续供应链区块链采用策略 |
| Blockchain adoption strategies for a sustainable supply chain with stochastic demand |
| 摘要点击 29 全文点击 0 投稿时间：2025-09-28 修订日期：2026-06-04 |
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| 中文关键词 区块链; 可持续供应链; 随机需求; 环境税 |
| 英文关键词 blockchain; sustainable supply chain; stochastic demand; environment taxes |
| 基金项目 国家自然科学基金资助项目（72371068, 71871052）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资助项目、东华大学研究生创新资助项目（CUSF-DH-D-2024023） |
| 投稿方向 可持续供应链 |
| 作者 | 单位 | 邮编 | | 马曼琼 | 东华大学旭日工商管理学院 | 200051 | | 李庆颖* | 东华大学旭日工商管理学院 | 200051 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 区块链通过提供安全、透明的信息共享平台, 能够有效应对数据质量差和隐私问题等典型问题, 增强供应链之间的数据完整性和共享效率, 从而提升需求预测的精确度. 基于政府鼓励企业采用区块链技术的背景, 考虑区块链能够有效改善需求预测精确度, 分析了制造商采用和不采用区块链两种情形下可持续供应链绩效和社会福利, 通过对比揭示了制造商采用区块链的动机以及采用区块链对供应链绩效、社会福利与环境因素的影响. 研究结果发现, 在随机需求下, 较低的需求预测精确度会损害供应链利润和社会福利; 采用区块链可以同时提高供应链利润和社会福利, 并有效减少环境污染, 使供应链达到" 三赢"; 较高的消费者可持续偏好程度能够增强区块链的积极影响. 然而, 当区块链对需求预测精确度的提升幅度较大时, 零售商的超订行为会被削弱, 从而导致制造商没有采用区块链的动机. |
| 英文摘要 |
| A secure and transparent blockchain platform improves data integrity, sharing, and privacy, leading to more accurate demand forecasts. In a sustainable supply chain with stochastic demand, blockchain can be adopted to improve forecasting accuracy and exempt environmental taxes. Supply chain performance and the social welfare are investigated and compared under scenarios with and without blockchain. The comparison reveals the manufacturer''s incentives to adopt blockchain and the impact of blockchain adoption on the supply chain and social welfare. Results show that low demand forecasting accuracy harms both profit and social welfare. Blockchain adoption improves them while reducing environmental pollution, achieving a "win-win-win" situation. A higher consumer sustainability preference can magnify this positive influence. However, if the blockchain-driven improvement in forecasting accuracy is significant, the retailer''s overordering would be mitigated, which reduces the manufacturer''s incentive to adopt blockchain. |
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