| 民营企业预期，产能利用和投资波动 |
| Expectations of private enterprises, capacity utilization and investment fluctuations |
| 摘要点击 10 全文点击 0 投稿时间：2025-09-27 修订日期：2026-01-26 |
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| 中文关键词 民营企业预期；产能利用；投资波动；TVP-SV-VAR模型 |
| 英文关键词 expectations of private enterprises,capacity utilization, investment volatility, TVP-SV-VAR model |
| 基金项目 基于第三方支付商户收单数据的服务消费统计测度研究 |
| 投稿方向 民营经济、统计建模 |
| 作者 | 单位 | 邮编 | | 肖磊 | 中南财经政法大学统计与数学学院 | 430073 | | 黄震* | 中南财经政法大学统计与数学学院 | 430073 | | 覃红 | 中南财经政法大学统计与数学学院 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 采用2019年至2023年全国民营企业运行状况调查数据, 构建民营企业预期、产能利用和投资指数, 采用TVP-SV-VAR模型分析三者动态关联、时变特征和传导机制. 主要结论如下: 民营企业预期、产能利用和投资指数呈现差异化运行特征. 投资和预期具有相互促进作用, 但是二者与产能利用的相互作用会因长短期而变化. 短期来看不同投资意愿对预期具有影响, 但长期来看会回归均衡水平. 企业预期水平对投资作用于产能利用的程度具有显著影响. 在中美贸易摩擦影响下, 三者本身存在的促进作用在中期内会受到抑制, 长期来看抑制效应会逐步减弱. 本文的研究有助于厘清民营企业预期、产能利用和投资的关系, 在中美贸易摩擦下保持定力. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Based on 2019-2023 survey data of Chinese private enterprises, this study constructs indices for expectations, capacity utilization, and investment, and applies TVP-SV-VAR model to analyze their dynamic relationships, time-varying features, and transmission mechanisms. Key findings include: The three indices show differentiated characteristics. Investment and expectations mutually reinforce each other, but their interactions with capacity utilization vary over different time horizons. Different investment intentions affect expectations in the short term, but they converge to equilibrium in the long run. The level of enterprise expectations significantly influences how investment affects capacity utilization. During the China-U.S. trade friction, the reinforcing effects among the three were suppressed in the medium term but gradually weakened over time. This study helps clarify the relationships among expectations, capacity utilization, and investment in private enterprises and supports maintaining resilience amid trade frictions. |
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