| 碳排放权交易政策能否有效破解“杰文斯悖论”？ |
| Can carbon emission trading policy effectively solve “Jevons paradox”? |
| 摘要点击 37 全文点击 0 投稿时间：2025-07-22 修订日期：2026-01-09 |
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| 中文关键词 碳排放权交易政策; 杰文斯悖论; 能源效率; 双重差分模型; 回弹效应 |
| 英文关键词 carbon emission trading policy; jevons paradox; energy efficiency; difference-in-differences model; rebound effect |
| 基金项目 国家自然科学基金资助项目(72203164);陕西省社会科学基金项目(2023D028);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(ZYTS25013). |
| 投稿方向 绿色金融 |
| 作者 | 单位 | 邮编 | | 贾锐宁 | 西安电子科技大学经济与管理学院 | 710126 | | 刘盼超* | 西安电子科技大学经济与管理学院 | 710126 | | 唐瑜梳 | 重庆师范大学经济与管理学院 | | | 柴建 | 西安电子科技大学经济与管理学院 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| “杰文斯悖论”导致能源效率改进在节能减排上面临“技术失效”问题. 为研究碳排放权交易(ETS)政策能否及如何破解“杰文斯悖论”, 采用2003~2017年中国250个城市的面板数据, 将双重差分模型嵌入“两步法”的回弹效应测算策略, 就ETS政策对回弹效应的影响进行考察. 研究发现, ETS政策可以显著降低回弹效应; 机制检验表明, 尽管ETS政策会通过促进技术创新效应加剧回弹效应, 但其通过削弱要素替代效应和抑制产出扩张效应对回弹效应所产生的促降作用更为明显; 该政策对回弹效应的促降效应在东部城市、非资源依赖型城市和高碳价城市通常更大. 结论揭示, ETS政策是破解“杰文斯悖论”的有效手段, 未来可通过完善碳市场建设充分释放技术创新的节能减排潜力. |
| 英文摘要 |
| “Jevons paradox” creates “technical failure” for energy efficiency improvements in conservation and emission reduction. To investigate whether and how carbon emission trading (ETS) policy can break “Jevons paradox”, this paper uses panel data from 250 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2017 and embeds DID model into “two-step method” for calculation of rebound effect to examine impact of ETS policy on rebound effect. Results demonstrate that ETS policy significantly reduces rebound effect. Mechanism analysis reveals that while ETS policy amplify rebound effect through effect of technological innovation, its reduction effect is more significant through weakening factor substitution effect and suppressing output expansion effect. The policy's effect on reducing rebound effect is greater in eastern cities, non-resource-dependent cities, and high-carbon-prices cities. This confirms ETS policy effectively address “Jevons paradox”. By enhancing the construction of carbon markets, we can fully unleash potential of technological innovation for energy conservation and emission reduction. |
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