| 乘“绿”而上：政府绿色引导基金何以激发城市绿色创新 |
| Riding the Wave of "Green": How Can Government Green Guidance Funds Stimulate Urban Green Innovation |
| 摘要点击 53 全文点击 0 投稿时间：2025-06-12 修订日期：2025-11-23 |
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| 中文关键词 政府绿色引导基金；城市绿色创新；双重机器学习；非线性效应 |
| 英文关键词 government green guidance funds; urban green innovation; double machine learning; non-linear effects |
| 基金项目 国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目） |
| 投稿方向 绿色金融、绿色创新 |
| 作者 | 单位 | 邮编 | | 刘娟* | 昆明理工大学管理与经济学院 | 650500 | | 文淑惠 | 昆明理工大学管理与经济学院 | | | 董明放 | 昆明理工大学管理与经济学院 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 作为财政资金“基金化”和绿色政策“金融化”的一种创新性探索，政府绿色引导基金正深刻影响着中国城市绿色创新格局。本文基于中国2011—2022年280个地级市面板数据，采用双重机器学习方法首次实证探析了政府绿色引导基金对城市绿色创新的影响及作用机制。研究发现：政府绿色引导基金能显著地激发城市绿色创新发展，且其对城市绿色创新活动存在明显的产业偏向性激励。机制分析表明，政府绿色引导基金主要通过优化数绿金融环境、增强绿色产业活力以及改善创新资源配置，进而推动城市绿色创新。基于“经济—技术—生态”的三位一体异质性检验表明，在市场潜力较大和行政等级较高、知识整合能力较强和创新合作水平较高的城市，以及非老工业城市和非资源型城市中，政府绿色引导基金更有利于促进城市绿色创新。非线性探究显示，政府绿色引导基金对城市绿色创新的激励效应呈现一定的正向且边际效应递增的非线性演化特征，这种积极作用总体随着时间的推移而逐渐增强，而激励效果的改善幅度则会随之逐渐趋于平缓。本文不仅从城市绿色创新发展角度证实了现阶段国家加快设立政府绿色引导基金的有效性，也为地方“有为政府”加快构建现代化金融体系和实现绿色创新驱动发展，提供了经验证据和决策参考。 |
| 英文摘要 |
| As an innovative exploration of the "capitalization" of fiscal funds and the "financialization" of green policies, the government's green guidance fund is deeply affecting China's urban green innovation pattern. Based on the panel data of 280 prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2022, this paper uses Double Machine Learning method to empirically analyze the impact and mechanism of the government's green guidance fund on urban green innovation for the first time. The study reveals that the government's green guidance fund can significantly stimulate the urban green innovation development, and it has obvious industrial bias incentives for urban green innovation activities. Mechanism analysis shows that the government green guidance fund mainly promotes urban green innovation by optimizing the digital green financial environment, stimulating the vitality of green industries and improving the allocation of innovation resources. The trinity heterogeneity test based on "economy-technology-ecology" indicates that in regions with greater market potential and higher administrative levels, stronger knowledge integration capabilities and higher levels of innovation cooperation, as well as non-old industrial cities and non-resource-based cities, government green guidance funds are more conducive to promoting urban green innovation. Non-linear exploration reveals that the incentive effect of government green guidance funds on urban green innovation shows a certain positive and increasing marginal effect nonlinear evolution characteristic. This positive role gradually strengthens over time in general, while the improvement amplitude of the incentive effect will gradually tend to be stable. This paper not only confirms the effectiveness of accelerating the establishment of government green guidance funds in China at this stage from the perspective of urban green innovation, but also provides the empirical evidence and decision-making references for local "active government" to accelerate the construction of a modern financial system and achieve the green innovation-driven development. |
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