| 联合投资还是独资? 增量配电网的主体构成模式选择 |
| Consortium or individual? selection of entity composition modes for incremental distribution networks |
| 摘要点击 13 全文点击 0 投稿时间：2025-01-14 修订日期：2026-06-03 |
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| 中文关键词 增量配电网; 光储一体化; 实物期权; 投资主体; 多主体动态决策 |
| 英文关键词 incremental distribution networks; photovoltaic-energy storage system; real options; investment entity; multi-agent dynamic decision making |
| 基金项目 国家社会科学基金重大项目(22&ZD104)；国家自然科学基金专项重点项目（72243009）；国家自然科学基金面上项目（72174141，71874121）；教育部人文社会科学研究项目（21YJA630023 |
| 投稿方向 决策与对策 |
| 作者 | 单位 | 邮编 | | 郭玉晓 | 天津大学 | 300072 | | 郝鹏* | 天津仁爱学院 | 301636 | | 解百臣 | 天津大学 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 针对项目初始成本高、储能设备利用率低等现实问题, 本文基于实物期权理论分析股权、电价和成本对投资阈值的影响机理, 并将该阈值嵌入增量配电网业主与新能源投资者的动态决策模型, 从经济性、交互稳定性和自治可靠性三个角度综合比较单主体与多主体联合模式的差异, 最终提出股权结构的选择方案. 结果表明, 最优投资主体构成模式受不确定性因素驱动的投资阈值影响, 电价与成本波动正相关时联合体模式表现更佳, 负相关时单主体模式更优. 联合体模式能够优化储能充放电行为，更适用于源荷功率波动较大的园区; 而单主体模式适用于需求平稳园区, 但伴随可靠性折损. 高外部风险情景下，仅依靠主体自发合作难以稳定形成联合体，需要外部激励机制引导各参与方策略收敛. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The study examined the selection of investment entity composition modes for photovoltaic–energy storage projects in incremental distribution networks under electricity price and cost uncertainty. A real–options model was used to analyze how equity, electricity price, and investment cost affect investment thresholds, which were then embedded in a dynamic decision model for network owners and new energy investors. Individual and consortium modes were compared in economic performance, grid–interaction stability, and autonomous reliability. The results show that the optimal mode is threshold–driven. When electricity price and cost move in the same direction, the consortium mode lowers the threshold through risk sharing and performs better. When they move in opposite directions, individual investment is more adaptable. The consortium mode suits parks with large source–load fluctuations, whereas individual investment suits stable–demand parks but causes reliability losses. Under high external risk, external incentives are needed to achieve stable cooperation. |
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