| 经济政策不确定性、央行调节与企业信贷期限 |
| Economic policy uncertainty, central bank regulation and corporate credit term |
| 摘要点击 40 全文点击 0 投稿时间：2024-11-16 修订日期：2026-01-13 |
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| 中文关键词 经济政策不确定性 央行调节 企业信贷期限 融资决策 融资成本 信息透明度 |
| 英文关键词 economic policy uncertainty; central bank regulation；corporate credit term; financing decisions; financing cost; transparency of information |
| 基金项目 国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目） |
| 投稿方向 金融 |
| 作者 | 单位 | 邮编 | | 刘凯 | 中国石油大学（北京） | 102249 | | 杨晓光* | 中国科学院 数学与系统科学研究院 | 100190 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 在我国面临着多重外部环境不确定性增多背景下，从企业信贷融资的视角，利用中国A股上市公司的季度数据探讨经济政策不确定性对企业信贷期限的影响。研究发现，经济政策不确定性升高时企业信贷期限将会延长。经济政策不确定性升高时，从资金提供方来看，企业的长期债券融资成本增加，银行信贷利率受央行调节政策的影响而下降，企业将会选择长期信贷融资，进而延长了企业信贷期限；从资金需求方来看，为获取优惠的信贷支持，企业将提高自身信息透明度，降低了企业与外界的信息不对称，促进企业信贷期限延长。非国有企业、规模更小、成长性更高和融资约束更大的企业信贷期限受经济政策不确定性的影响更大。经济政策不确定性升高时企业的外部融资成本增加，长期债务中长期债券的占比减少，长期信贷占比增加；另外，央行调节政策发挥效用与商业银行、企业反应时间一致。 |
| 英文摘要 |
| Against the backdrop of increasing uncertainties in multiple external environments in our country, from the perspective of enterprise credit financing, this paper explores the impact of economic policy uncertainties on the credit term of enterprises by using the quarterly data of listed companies on China's A-share market. The research finds that when the uncertainty of economic policies increases, the credit term of enterprises will be extended. When the uncertainty of economic policies increases, from the perspective of fund providers, the cost of long-term bond financing for enterprises rises, and the bank credit interest rate decreases due to the influence of the central bank's regulatory policies. Enterprises will choose long-term credit financing, thereby extending the credit term of enterprises. From the perspective of the demand side of funds, in order to obtain preferential credit support, enterprises will enhance the transparency of their own information, reduce the information asymmetry between enterprises and the outside world, and promote the extension of the credit term of enterprises. Non-state-owned enterprises, those with smaller scale, higher growth potential and greater financing constraints are more affected by economic policy uncertainties in terms of credit terms. When the uncertainty of economic policies increases, the external financing costs of enterprises rise, the proportion of long-term debt and medium - and long-term bonds decreases, and the proportion of long-term credit increases. In addition, the effectiveness of the central bank's regulatory policies is consistent with the response time of commercial banks and enterprises. |
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