| 我国养老金缺口困境的破解：基于公债融资的视角 |
| A Solution for China’s Pension Shortfall Dilemma: From the Perspective of public debt Financing |
| 摘要点击 11 全文点击 0 投稿时间：2023-11-12 修订日期：2025-04-24 |
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| 中文关键词 融资破解方案、养老金缺口、养老保险基金、公债融资 |
| 英文关键词 Financing Solution, Pension Shortfall, Pension fund, Public debt |
| 基金项目 国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目） |
| 作者 | 单位 | 邮编 | | 张金清 | 复旦大学 | 200433 | | 李建宇* | 复旦大学 | 200433 | | 邱实 | 复旦大学 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 持续扩张的养老金缺口使得我国财政支付压力已难堪重负, 而目前对此仍处于无解的困境. 为此, 本文另辟蹊径, 提出了发行公债为养老保险基金融资进而破解养老金缺口困境的新方案(下称为融资破解方案), 并借助OLG模型论证了该方案在中国实施的可行性, 主要结论如下: (1)若仅以财政收入补贴养老金缺口, 随着养老保险基金的消耗和公共投资被挤出, 持续扩张的养老金缺口最终会引致财政收支失衡; 实施融资破解方案后, 养老金缺口占财政收入的比率不会无限制地增长, 最终能够实现财政收支平衡和经济可持续增长. (2)以基准经济作为比较标准, 参数调整方案会损害当前代际居民福利, 但融资破解方案可以提升全部代际居民的福利, 实现帕累托改进, 因而是一种更容易被接受的方案. 若以社会福利最大化为目标, 由于当前代际居民的权重较高, 融资破解方案是更优的选择. |
| 英文摘要 |
| China’s expanding pension gaps lead to dramatic fiscal burden, and there are no solutions for this unsolved dilemma. Under the circumstance, this paper proposes a new solution through public debt financing (hereinafter referred to as the financing solution) and constructs an OLG model to demonstrate the feasibility and effect of the solution in China. The conclusions are as follows. (1) Subsidizing pension gaps with only fiscal revenues exhausts pension funds and crowds out public investment. The expanding pension gap eventually leads to fiscal imbalance. However, the financing solution can limit the increase of ratio of pension gaps to fiscal revenues, leading to fiscal balance and sustainable economic growth. (2) The parametric solution imposes welfare loss for current generations, but the financing solution can improve the welfare of all generations relative to the laissez-faire. Thus, the financing solution is a Pareto improvement and a more acceptable solution. As current generations’ utility is heavily weighted in social welfare, the financing solution generates higher welfare than parametric solution in most cases. |
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