| 专家自信度驱动的应急响应等级决策方法 |
| Expert self-confidence driven emergency response level decision-making method |
| 摘要点击 59 全文点击 0 投稿时间：2022-05-06 修订日期：2026-03-29 |
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| 中文关键词 应急决策; 响应等级；专家自信度；证据融合 |
| 英文关键词 emergency decision-making; emergency response level; expert self-confidence; evidence fusion |
| 基金项目 国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目） |
| 投稿方向 应急决策 |
| 作者 | 单位 | 邮编 | | 张磊* | 大连理工大学 | 116023 | | 叶鑫 | 大连理工大学 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 应急响应等级的精准研判是科学应对突发事件的核心前提. 针对复杂突发事件中专家群体研判应急响应等级不一致的问题, 本文提出一种基于专家自信度驱动的应急响应等级决策方法. 该方法通过引入专家对自身研判的自信度评价, 解析不完全自信所蕴含的不确定性, 构建基于证据的响应等级决策问题模型. 进一步地, 通过挖掘研判信息中的不确定度与一致度等多维特征, 建立考虑决策者风险偏好的权重分析机制, 并结合专家犹豫行为特征设计证据可靠度测度函数. 在此基础上, 提出一种可靠度驱动的研判证据优化融合方法, 为应急响应等级的精准研判提供决策支持. 最后, 以典型社会安全事件为例验证了所提方法的实用性与优越性, 结果表明该方法在时效性、有效性与可操性等方面具有明显综合优势. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Accurate emergency response level determination is critical for effective emergency management. To address the inconsistent judgement of emergency response level in complex situations, this study proposed a decision-making method considering expert self-confidence. By introducing experts' self-confidence evaluation, this method analyzes the uncertainty implied by incomplete confidence and constructs an evidence-based emergency response level decision model. Furthermore, by extracting multi-dimensional features such as uncertainty and consistency from judgment information, a weight analysis mechanism considering risk preferences of decision-maker is established, and an evidence reliability measurement function is designed by incorporating experts' hesitation behavior. On this basis, a reliability-driven optimization fusion method is proposed to support determination of emergency response level. Finally, a typical social security incident is used to verify the practicality and superiority of the proposed method. The results demonstrate its robust advantages in timeliness, effectiveness, and operability. |
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