| 考虑风险规避行为的订单农业供应链产量保险策略 |
| Yield Insurance Strategies of Contract-farming Supply Chain Considering Risk Aversion Behavior |
| 摘要点击 78 全文点击 0 投稿时间：2020-12-30 修订日期：2025-09-18 |
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| 中文关键词 订单农业供应链；产量保险；风险规避；CVaR |
| 英文关键词 contract-farming supply chain; yield insurance; risk aversion; CVaR |
| 基金项目 国家自然科学基金项目 |
| 投稿方向 订单农业供应链管理 |
| 作者 | 单位 | 邮编 | | 经有国* | 昆明理工大学 | 650093 | | 尹健蓉 | 昆明理工大学 | | | 孙力 | 昆明理工大学 | | | 杨红娟 | 昆明理工大学 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 针对订单农业模式下由一个风险规避型农户和一个风险中性的农产品销售公司组成的二级供应链，考虑农产品产量受天气变化的影响而存在不确定性，研究农户的产量保险投保策略及农产品销售公司的保费分担策略。通过CVaR方法刻画了农户的风险规避行为，应用Stackelberg博弈理论分别建立了无产量保险的基本模型和有产量保险的决策模型，给出了产量保险投保策略与保费分担策略的条件。研究结果表明：购买产量保险可以激励农户扩大投产并增加农产品销售公司的利润，此时农户的计划产量随着风险规避程度增大而减小；仅当保险公司的金融安全因子较低时，农户愿意购买产量保险并且农产品销售公司愿意分担保费，而农户购买产量保险的意愿随着其风险规避程度的增大而增大；农产品销售公司的保费分担策略使得农户的计划产量随着风险规避程度增大而增大，且保费分担策略可以实现帕累托改进。最后通过数值分析验证了模型和结论的可靠性。 |
| 英文摘要 |
| Aiming at a two-level supply chain consisting of a risk-averse farmer and a risk-neutral sales company under the contract-farming mode, the uncertainty of agricultural production affected by weather change is considered, the yield insurance strategy of the farmer and the premium sharing strategy of the sales company are studied. The risk aversion behavior of the farmer is described by CVaR method, and the basic model without yield insurance and the decision model with yield insurance are established respectively by using Stackelberg game theory, and the conditions for purchasing yield insurance strategy and premium sharing strategy are provided. The results show that: purchasing yield insurance can encourage the farmer to expand production and increase the profit of the sales company. At this time, farmer's planned yield decreases with the increase of risk avoidance degree. Only when the financial security factor of the insurance company is low, the farmer is willing to buy yield insurance and the sales company is willing to share the premium, while the farmer's willingness to buy yield insurance increases with the increase of the degree of risk aversion. The premium sharing strategy of the sales company makes the planned yield of the farmer increase with the increase of risk avoidance degree, and the premium sharing strategy can realize pareto improvement. Finally, the reliability of the model and conclusion is verified by numerical analysis. |
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