| 食品安全网络舆情的重复感染SIR模型研究 |
| Research of repeated infection SIR model of network public opinion about food safety |
| 摘要点击 188 全文点击 0 投稿时间：2020-04-06 修订日期：2021-04-03 |
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| 中文关键词 网络舆情; 传染病模型; 利益相关者; 食品安全; 预测 |
| 英文关键词 network public opinion; infectious disease model; stakeholder; food safety; prediction |
| 基金项目 国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目） |
| 作者 | 单位 | 邮编 | | 谢卫红 | 广东工业大学 | 510520 | | 杨超波* | 广东工业大学 | 510520 | | 朱郁筱 | 广东工业大学 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 基于利益相关者理论, 根据食品安全网络舆情的舆情主体与舆情事件的利益紧密程度将舆情主体分为直接利益相关者、间接利益相关者和边缘利益相关者三种类型. 设计重复感染的SIR改进模型, 提出SDIERF模型, 显示感染者在网络舆情不同发展阶段的发帖数, 根据突发事件的四个预警级别设计四个不同干预力度的干预级别. 通过仿真的方法, 研究该三类利益相关者出现重复感染的感染人数及其发帖数的变化情况. 使用实例验证了SDIERF模型的预测和监控效果, 在潜伏阶段进行干预的效果最好. |
| 英文摘要 |
| According to the benefit’s relationships of the subjects of network public opinion about food safety and public opinion events, this paper divided the subjects into three types, direct stakeholders, indirect stakeholders and marginal stakeholders, based on the stakeholder theory. This paper designed the SIR improved model with repeated infection, the SDIERF model, which showed the numbers of the net posts in different development stages of network public opinion, and designed four different intervention levels with different intervention efforts according to the four warning levels of emergencies. Through simulation methods, this paper researched the changes of the numbers of infected persons and net posts, while the three types of stakeholders had repeated infections. The experiment of real case showed the prediction and monitoring effect of the SDIERF model. The effect was best to intervene in the latent stage. |
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