| 基于eBay的投标决策模型 |
| Model of the Decision-Making Based on eBay |
| 摘要点击 1490 全文点击 0 投稿时间：2018-04-13 修订日期：2018-10-20 |
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| 中文关键词 网上拍卖；投标；非齐次泊松过程；期望收入 |
| 英文关键词 online auction; bidding; non-homogeneous poisson process; expecting income |
| 基金项目 |
| 作者 | 单位 | 邮编 | | 陈绍刚 | 电子科技大学数学科学学院 | 611731 | | 戴曾罡 | 电子科技大学 | 611731 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 从eBay网站上拍卖交易数据分析中，发现起拍价过低容易引起投标者的兴趣，造成早期抢标效应，且在一定程度上会削弱末尾抢标的影响。基于独立私有价值模型，不同于传统决策研究，从卖家的角度求解了eBay拍卖中投标者的赢标概率和期望收入。结合倒指数和指数模型的数据分析，以非齐次泊松过程近似投标者到达过程更为合理,得出当投标者以自身估值向下递减投标达到次高投标价时，获得的期望收入最大的投标策略。 |
| 英文摘要 |
| From the analysis of auction transaction data on the eBay website, it is found that the low
starting price is likely to arouse the interest of bidders and cause the early bidding effect, and to a certain extent, will weaken the impact of the final bid. Different from the traditional decision-making research, we solve the bidders’winning probability and expected income in the eBay auction based on the independent private value model from the perspective of the seller. Combining the data analysis of the inverted index and the exponential model, it is more reasonable to approximate the arrival process of the bidders with the non-homogeneous poisson process, it concludes that when the bidder uses its own valuation to reduce the bid to reach the second highest bid price, the bidder will obtain the largest expected income. |
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